Thread: TA For STI
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Old 28-02-2007, 10:41 PM
cool79 cool79 is offline
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looks like the bear is coming liao...
i have another update also
talkin abt fazer for 28 feb
got the mail at 7pm

> China leads worldwide equities correction for first time but if Wall
Street
> comes to rescue tonight worst of Singapore equities plunge could be
> over
>
>
> ST Index has given up 25% of 1038 point gain from last June's 2278 low
> to Monday's all time record high of 3316 but mini-crash could be
> quickly over depending on developments out of China.
>
> In just over 24 hours the ST Index has surrendered a quarter of its
8-month
> gains which on the surface could cause a lot of damage to bullish
> sentiments. The weak rebound from this morning's low of 3056 suggests
> that it is too early to say the worst is over but having plunged 260
> points or 7.8%, which is more than half of the 2006 mid-year plunge of
> 14.6% spread over 5-6 weeks, the latest behaviour could be different from last year's.
>
> This means it is still possible that the mini-crash could be quickly
> over especially as the bearish leads from China are without precedent
> mainly rumour-driven and as the Chinese economy is strong, no lasting
> damage is likely. Whether hedge funds are behind the latest contagion
> like in
> mid-2006 remains to be seen.
>
> It is interesting that China, the future No 1 world economic power, is
> taking this lead, coinciding with Greenspan's comments about not
> ruling
out
> a recession in the US as early as end-2007. As a long time Fed
> chairman,
he
> won't make such remarks knowing that his words carry a lot of weight
> and this could be the more influential factor behind Wall Street's
> overnight plunge rather than China.
>
> But Bernanke may want to ensure than Greenspan is wrong by guiding the
> US economy through any slowdown even by cutting interest rates
> aggressively which would be bullish for Wall Street. Thus stock
> markets are telling the Fed to keep rates at least benign.
>
> Wall Street acting in sympathy with China makes the global contagion,
> already seen last year and in the dot com crash in 2000 is another
> sign that equities will continue to act in a "global village" stock
> exchange fashion.
>
> It is also unlikely that this latest mini-crash will mark the start of
> a new Asian financial crisis which had lasted some 16 months from
> mid-1997
to
> Sep 1998. At that time Wall Street was spared from the Asian contagion.
>
> Smaller markets like Spore are counting on both China and the US to
> take the lead in recovery. If the Dow recovers about half of its
> overnight 416 point loss tonight, then chances are good that the worst
> could be over for the time being and the STI could rebound back to 3150-3200.
>
> But a resumption of the Jan-Feb run-up to take the STI to 3300 and new
> highs would have to wait until the clouds have all cleared.
> Considering
the
> big shock to investors and traders this week, it would not be easy to
> convince them that it is time to buy for a rebound which some daring
> players are doing this morning with the STI recovery nearly 40 points
> from its 3056 low to 3094 at around 10 am.
>
> These seasoned players know that it is very rare that one sees some
> blue chips showing triple digit losses eg DBS down $1.50 to $21 at
> low, Jardine C&C down 80c, Jardine Matheson down 90c, UOB –80c, City
> and KepCorp down 70c.
>
> There had been times in the past when these hefty losers regained most
> if not all of their losses in 1-2 days when the market scare turned
> out to be a false lead.
>
> If the ST Index has bottomed out at least temporarily this morning at
3056,
> a 38.2% recovery of its 260 point loss from 3316 to 3056 would take it
back
> to 3155.
>
> A 50% recovery means getting back to 3186. However there is a huge
> breakdown gap at today's 3100 high and yesterday's 3216 low. The STI
opened
> at 3076 today against yesterday's 3232 close and 3307 high.
>
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