Recession? - Singapore Stocks - Learn & Discuss Good Stocks Tips & Analysis!

want444 · #1 (**permalink**) 23-02-2007, 01:52 AM

got this from Yahoo Finance..

Quote:

MarketWatch
Stocks are headed for a fall
Wednesday February 21, 10:54 am ET
By Irwin Yamamoto
Commentary: Stocks are headed for a fall

KAHULUI, Hawaii (YF) -- Market wise, equities are in the midst of the second-longest rally since 1929. Yet there are some serious warning signs -- especially sentiment

The odds are high that the current advance won't be able to continue. Stocks remain stretched and trade above past market multiples. What goes up must come down.

On the economic front, we are overdue for a recession. The last one occurred in 2000 and 2001. Business expansions don't last forever. The boom-and-bust pattern of an economic cycle has not been repealed.

An inverted yield curve almost always points to a deep business slowdown. The Fed publicly claims there's a 40% chance of a recession. However, a model of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is essentially forecasting an outright recession.

Double-digit corporate earnings growth will be a thing of the past. Companies should consider themselves fortunate to experience single-digit growth.

The housing industry remains on the verge of a massive collapse. In our estimation, this real estate debacle is only in the top half of the second inning of a nine-inning ballgame.

Sentimentally speaking, our indicators are flashing major warning signals. At extremes, sentiment can indicate a peak or an important low. This contrary indicator is presently at an extreme level. Unfortunately, it's a very bearish one.

You need not look far for the evidence of the euphoria in today's market:

1. Fox plans to launch a new business channel. Newsweek magazine recently had a write-up on the success of the CNBC Business Channel.

2. Based on surveys by Investors Intelligence, bullish investment advisers hover between the 50% to the 60% range. These are at the high end of the spectrum.

3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Other OTC:INDUF.PK - News) achieved an all-time record high and the other indexes reached multiyear highs.

4. Small-cap stocks outperformed the other averages by a wide margin. Case in point, the Russell 2000 (Toronto:RUT.TO - News) skyrocketed to a record high in early 2007. In addition, it enjoyed an 18.9% gain last year.

5. Wall Street expects to pay out $23.9 billion in bonuses. A startling increase of 17% over the previous year's record. The world's largest investment banker, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS - News), reported a whopping profit of $9.4 billion -- the most ever for a Wall Street company in a given year. And it has set aside $16.5 billion for salaries, bonuses and benefits for employees. Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE:LEH - News) also produced record profits for the quarter and year. Bear Sterns experienced a record quarter.

6. In 2006, a combined total value of $1.6 trillion of mergers and acquisitions in the United States nearly beat the $1.7 trillion record for values in 2000 (the top of the high-tech bubble). Internationally, mergers and acquisitions of $3.8 trillion did overcome 2000's figures.

7. The utilization of derivatives surged to the quickest pace in eight years during the first half of 2006. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the face value of derivatives based on corporate bonds, currencies, interest rates, commodities and stocks leaped 24% to $370 trillion. It marked the biggest percentage increase since 1998.

8. On Feb. 9, Fortress Investment Group (NYSE:FIG - News) made history. It was the first hedge and private equity fund to go public, a $634 million initial public offering. In its first day of trading, Fortress shot up 89% in intraday trading.

9. In the United States, the number of hedge funds resumed its growth. There are in excess of 9,000 of these funds. Around the world it's 30,000 funds.

With all the frenzy, mania and froth, Wall Street failed to take note of how corporate insider selling has increased to its highest pace in 20 years. Furthermore, cash levels of mutual funds are near record lows. Without money for buying support, how do equities keep moving up?

Hence, our investing strategy: cash and go short.

We started the new year with 100% in cash, earning well over 5%, risk free. On Jan.17, we deployed 10% into the Rydex Ursa Fund (NASDAQ:RYURX - News). Ursa will rise when the Standard and Poor's 500 Index (CDNX:SPX.V - News) heads down in price. Another 10% is earmarked for RYURX if the S&P 500 moves higher in the coming weeks. The inverse action will provide us a lower cost-average price. The total return from cash and the short position should beat the market's performance for the new year.

The publicity shy Irwin Yamamoto has been managing money on the beautiful island of Maui for 30 years and is editor of the Yamamoto Forecast investment letter. He's as contrarian in his business as he is in his stock picks, choosing to forgo advertising, Web sites, e-mail or even a toll-free phone number. Investors interested in his monthly newsletter should write to P.O Box 573, Kahului, HI, 96733.

Content found in The Guru's Corner is subject to the terms and conditions found in the Disclaimer and does not represent a recommendation of investment advice. Investors should seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to making any investment decisions.

evideo · #2 (**permalink**) 27-02-2007, 01:05 PM

Today Market healthy correction in progress 27-FEB-07.. should correct more after lunch... counters will become much cheaper for those who want to pick again..

blitzksg · #3 (**permalink**) 27-02-2007, 01:58 PM

yeah, sti -60 currently, hsi -300. all in red :sterb155:

blitzksg · #4 (**permalink**) 28-02-2007, 02:09 AM

wah. dow n nasdaq also in a sea of red. dow currently down 180 points

cool79 · #5 (**permalink**) 02-03-2007, 11:58 PM

seeing a lot of red now... is this the starting of the bearish market or just onli small corrections?

blitzksg · #6 (**permalink**) 03-03-2007, 12:21 AM

hmm no idea

nobody can say for certain. Even those "experts", u realise that half predicting bull, half predicting bear.

cool79 · #7 (**permalink**) 03-03-2007, 12:28 AM

where to find all the report?
as what i had done a simple analysis... i also think half half as now us market is bear but china n hk is bull... don know how till singapore b sia... i am just praying hard... if singapore gana bear till thru... i do not think i need to hedge... i will be lookin closely to tue market for yongnam... if there's a bull chionging up... once it hit the resistance line... lan lan... i buy in at 0.30 n lock my lost at 1550

cos i think once it break the resistance line... don think it's able to go back again... what r ur views?

but i also think dat the resistance line is weak... there's also chances of it dropping back down again...

blitzksg · #8 (**permalink**) 03-03-2007, 12:37 AM

VERY hard to say in these conditions bro....Now I also don't know the direction of STI. If I knew, I would be buying STI warrants already

btw, u check with ur broker alrdy? I don't think u are the one buying in leh, i think the exchange will buy in on ur behalf. Be careful not to do double orders. Eg u buy in, then later on exchange still buy in for u.

cool79 · #9 (**permalink**) 03-03-2007, 12:42 AM

i check with broker liao
i told him can i buy baqck at 0.275... he say no... wait till it's 0.25 if i can get it... if can't then wait for his call
dat is y i plotted out the chart to see my losses... either to hedge or not to hedge.. if market reaches 0.25 i will buy in 40 lots... if on the day it keep dropping... then lppl... try to find some fund to hold the counter... till it recover back... i hope this happens... :P

cos if i never buy in at 0.25... n unlucky on wed it shoot up to bullish.. then i have no cover for my ass liao... will be shot naked n die on sgx
heehee

i had comfirm dat sgx will buy in for me on wed at 11:15am... the price they buy in will be 2 bids higher than the closing price of the previous day or 2 bid higher on the actual day

cool79 · #10 (**permalink**) 03-03-2007, 01:40 AM

Dow 12,164.41 69.93 (0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,378.34 25.87 (1.08%)
S&P 500 1,393.30 9.87 (0.70%)

30-yr Bond 0.4654% 0.003
NYSE Volume 1,629,889,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,160,855,000

at 1.39am