Received this from my broker this morning:

Various reasons such as a crackdown in anti- specualtive meaures by Beijing
to Alan Greenspan's potential recession comments have been cited as cause
for the meltdown in markets. None of these are the actual cause of the
decline but mere excuses for investors to exit overbought levels. From a
Elliott Wave pespective, we had warned that both the HSI and ST Index had
potentially ended 5 legged moves and that declines were likely. Still,
we did not expect yesterday's carnage in the Singaproe bourse and were
looking out for a gradual pullback where selective non- index stocks
outperform. Yesterday's market action had proved us wrong in that respect.

ST Index- On 14th February, we published a report stating that a wave 5
move could be terminating near 3250, stating fibonacci relationships
between the various sub-waves. The index however extended another 60
points subsequently. However yesterday's decline pretty much confirms that
that a major top is in place. We also stated a break below a 19 day simple
moving average would be bearish. As at yesterday's close that level was
3222. Today's opening should see the index gap down below that level.
Today's decline will very likely be a wave 3 or wave b decline which could
bring the index down towards 3050-3070. That level is close to a 1 STD from
a long term 250 day moving average. Very likely, we could see a rebound
from that range. In the medium term, we could see a decline towards
2800-2850.

Cool! thanks for the update man

looks like the bear is coming liao...
i have another update also
talkin abt fazer for 28 feb
got the mail at 7pm

> China leads worldwide equities correction for first time but if Wall
Street
> comes to rescue tonight worst of Singapore equities plunge could be
> over
>
>
> ST Index has given up 25% of 1038 point gain from last June's 2278 low
> to Monday's all time record high of 3316 but mini-crash could be
> quickly over depending on developments out of China.
>
> In just over 24 hours the ST Index has surrendered a quarter of its
8-month
> gains which on the surface could cause a lot of damage to bullish
> sentiments. The weak rebound from this morning's low of 3056 suggests
> that it is too early to say the worst is over but having plunged 260
> points or 7.8%, which is more than half of the 2006 mid-year plunge of
> 14.6% spread over 5-6 weeks, the latest behaviour could be different from last year's.
>
> This means it is still possible that the mini-crash could be quickly
> over especially as the bearish leads from China are without precedent
> mainly rumour-driven and as the Chinese economy is strong, no lasting
> damage is likely. Whether hedge funds are behind the latest contagion
> like in
> mid-2006 remains to be seen.
>
> It is interesting that China, the future No 1 world economic power, is
> taking this lead, coinciding with Greenspan's comments about not
> ruling
out
> a recession in the US as early as end-2007. As a long time Fed
> chairman,
he
> won't make such remarks knowing that his words carry a lot of weight
> and this could be the more influential factor behind Wall Street's
> overnight plunge rather than China.
>
> But Bernanke may want to ensure than Greenspan is wrong by guiding the
> US economy through any slowdown even by cutting interest rates
> aggressively which would be bullish for Wall Street. Thus stock
> markets are telling the Fed to keep rates at least benign.
>
> Wall Street acting in sympathy with China makes the global contagion,
> already seen last year and in the dot com crash in 2000 is another
> sign that equities will continue to act in a "global village" stock
> exchange fashion.
>
> It is also unlikely that this latest mini-crash will mark the start of
> a new Asian financial crisis which had lasted some 16 months from
> mid-1997
to
> Sep 1998. At that time Wall Street was spared from the Asian contagion.
>
> Smaller markets like Spore are counting on both China and the US to
> take the lead in recovery. If the Dow recovers about half of its
> overnight 416 point loss tonight, then chances are good that the worst
> could be over for the time being and the STI could rebound back to 3150-3200.
>
> But a resumption of the Jan-Feb run-up to take the STI to 3300 and new
> highs would have to wait until the clouds have all cleared.
> Considering
the
> big shock to investors and traders this week, it would not be easy to
> convince them that it is time to buy for a rebound which some daring
> players are doing this morning with the STI recovery nearly 40 points
> from its 3056 low to 3094 at around 10 am.
>
> These seasoned players know that it is very rare that one sees some
> blue chips showing triple digit losses eg DBS down $1.50 to $21 at
> low, Jardine C&C down 80c, Jardine Matheson down 90c, UOB –80c, City
> and KepCorp down 70c.
>
> There had been times in the past when these hefty losers regained most
> if not all of their losses in 1-2 days when the market scare turned
> out to be a false lead.
>
> If the ST Index has bottomed out at least temporarily this morning at
3056,
> a 38.2% recovery of its 260 point loss from 3316 to 3056 would take it
back
> to 3155.
>
> A 50% recovery means getting back to 3186. However there is a huge
> breakdown gap at today's 3100 high and yesterday's 3216 low. The STI
opened
> at 3076 today against yesterday's 3232 close and 3307 high.
>

eh that's an optimistic analysis leh

OCBC March 6, 2007

Straits Times Index

What goes up must come down....

- In a single session, the STI has broken through our suppor zone, shedding over 96.45 points yesterday. The last 5 trading sessions have resulted in the STI breaching the 50 and 100-day moving averages, which translate to a high probability of more downside ahead.

- Given the oversold signals shown by the near-term price indicators, we can expect a lot of volatility over the next 5 - 10 trading days as the STI will attempts to stage a technical rebound before it resumes its down-trend.

- Elliot wave counts indicate that the benchmark is currently undergoing a corrective wave ( Wave 4 ) within a 5-wave up-cycle, which began in June 06.

- Quantitative analysis has revealed a behavioral trend in the index during its correctional phases, which sopports our forecast of a further downside for the STI in the weeks ahead.

- Using the degreee of losses sustained by the STI during every significant correction from 181 to date, we noticed a pattern that occured in 13 out of 15 such corrections ( 86% historical occurrance ). We broke our measurements into 2 parts, the 1st part that was the 1st phase of the correction which was followed by a mild rebound and the 2nd part that correction which was followed by a mild rebound and the 2nd part that measured the completed correction.

- Every correction that suffered a loss ranging around 9 - 11% within the 1st phase of the sell down, the index would resume its plunge after a muted attempt to recover. The final phase of the correction would result in a loss of over 18% from its peak. However, where the index chalked up a loss of less than 9-11% within its 1st phase, the STI recovered strongly and continued its rally. This occurred in Jan 04 and Aug 05. The only 3 exceptions out of the 13 occurrences were in Aug 88, July 99 and May 06, where the index suffered a pullback of just 15%, despite crossing the 9-11% mark in the 1st phase of the sell down.

- As of yesterday's closing, the STI has lost approximately 10% from its peak at 2,216.22. Heence a conservative measurement forecasting a 15% loss from its peak would place the STI close to 2,800. Thus we set a support zone at 2,700 - 2800. Resistance set at 3,100.

Hi Admin,
I have a good article ( from brokage firm ) to share but it is in PDF. The file size is larger than the allowable file size for attachment. Any chance to up the attachment file size limit?
For the previous post, I type it manually since I could not upload due to file size .....

wow! haha thanks for the effort... I'm so ppl here appreciate ur effort!

I can increase the attachment size for pdf to 1mb...but I don't think i can spare any more than that because im afraid of exceeding the web hosting disk space. best if u can host elsewhere and link here :P

think it's true abt what minosa posted for the 1st post
we should wait for 2800 to 2850 before i step in the market
now i onli got 1 counter... pinearigtech
stuck there cos onli 3 lots... lol
the rest r cash liao
:P

Okay.... since this is reproduced by typing.. just a few lines:

STRATEGY
Taking a defensive/trading stance as volatility increases.
Our view on the STI/Singapore remains unchanged. Our view is that this is a corrective rebound and our tactical stance is that we should adopt: (a) a definsive position, (b) trading of high beta blue-chips when the index weakens.
The list of stock recommendations attributed to us by Teh Hooi Ling in the BT article dated 6 March 2007 is a gross misrepresentation of our views; it does not look anything near our official recommendation list, as given below;

......
..........

Understand the constraint